Earthquakes, Floods and Landslides
With the passage of time, the impacts of natural and human-induced environmental hazards and disasters continue to increase. The important question is: Why, despite advances in the natural and social sciences of hazards and disasters, do losses continue to increase? Keeping this in mind ICSU created a Planning Group to make suitable recommendations for implementation.
The geographical area covered by ICSU ROAP accounts for more than one half of the world’s population and for almost 80% of all losses due to natural hazards globally. The classical examples in the recent past are: the Sumatra earthquake of 2004 and the resultant tsunami that claimed some 250,000 human lives and inflicted unprecedented economic losses; two tropical storms that caused 130,000 deaths in Bangladesh in 1991; and the 2002 landslide in Nepal which affected 265,000 people. China had a massive earthquake on May 12, 2008 claiming about 70,000 lives.
ICSU had already taken a major initiative to address the issue of Natural Hazards, ROAP chose “Natural and Human-Induced Environmental Hazards and Disasters in Asia and the Pacific” as a priority area in September 2006. At the Board Meeting of ROAP in Tehran, Iran, in March 2007, it was decided that ROAP shall focus on three natural hazards, namely floods, earthquakes and landslides. There are several bodies, and national and international programmes operating in hazard-related studies; ICSU ROAP’s effort is to collaborate in a few niche areas.
The group noted the special situation for the ROAP geographical area due to the presence of a large number of islands vulnerable to hazards in the region. Involvement of social scientists is necessary to ensure that benefits of current-day knowledge are appropriately implemented to reduce hazards. We recognize that the results of basic research form the foundation of all scientific and technical interventions. We shall emphasize on the use of the available results and interweave them with social sciences to make them effective.
The major recommendations are highlighted below.
Earthquakes
Several countries in the Asia Pacific region do not have adequate earthquake recording facilities, which need to be identified and improved. The development of scenarios of present-day losses (social and economic), if earlier earthquakes recur, and building codes for earthquake-prone countries is also necessary. A major effort is required to estimate the accelerations at the surface taking into consideration the local ground conditions and use them for micro-zonation of major cities. Self-designed non-engineered homes can be improved enormously by simple inexpensive retrofitting. It is also important to learn to live with earthquakes in earthquake-prone areas. This is where promotion of public awareness plays a vital role. Artificial water reservoirs have triggered damaging earthquakes. There are ways and means now available to find safer sites. A few (four to five) case studies of earthquakes would be very helpful.
Floods
An effort is required to set up sophisticated flood prediction and warning systems as has been already done in many developed countries. It would be important to identify vulnerability of countries to flooding and develop suitable building codes and construction regulations and a X robust methodology to implement them. It is also crucial to communicate information related to flood prevention and mitigation to communities for their use. The proposed flood related work would be coordinated with other existing national and international programmes.
Landslides
Rapid population growth has intensified urban, mountain and coastal development in the Asia and the Pacific region, which are increasing human-induced landslide hazard and landslide vulnerability in urbanized areas. Application of landslide prevention technology is required in areas such as cultural heritage sites and other locations of high-societal values, where relocation and early warning are not possible or very difficult. The most cost-effective measure to mitigate landslide disasters is early warning and evacuation. Timely prediction and early warning technology, suitable for the Asia and the Pacific region should be developed. A few case studies of landslides would be very helpful.
Disaster Management and Capacity Building
It has been recognized that the available scientific knowledge is not being fully utilized in forecasting the hazards, estimating the risks, and the necessary outreach for the benefit of the public, particularly in a large part of the area covered by ROAP. It is important to stress the role of social sciences in understanding hazards and their mitigation; and the role of the private sector and civil societies in building and enhancing regional capacity for disaster reduction, building self-sustaining capacity at various levels for different hazards and establishing continuity in capacity building.
The science plan suggests to develop projects relevant to the problems identified. We hope to improve the situation in the Asia Pacific region with support and collaboration of all concerned so that fewer hazard events develop into disasters.
