Examples of Possible drivers

Dynamics of science and of science in relation to society

• Problem-orientation of science and the connection of science agendas to social and economic agendas
• Implementation of accountability regimes vs. scientific autonomy
• Commoditization of science
• Access to quality assured data
• Geographical and sectoral shifts in where science is performed
• Complexity of scientific problems
• Societal acceptance/ethics

Dynamics of mechanisms for international cooperation that influence cooperation in science

• Balance of multilateralism and unilateralism
• Importance of non-state actors
• Interdependence and globalization
• Standing and functioning of international organizations

Scientific Breakthroughs and Societal Disruptions

• Major breakthroughs (e.g., in biomedicine, communications)
• Human or natural disruptions

Societal mega-trends

• Demographic changes
• Resource limits
• Societal needs
• Technological developments
• Shifting axes of the world economy
• Shifting belief and value systems
• Human response to changing climate

What are scenarios?

A scenario is a tool for ordering perceptions about alternative future environments in which one’s decisions might be played out (P. Schwartz, 1996, in The Art of the Long View; Currency Doubleday); it is a plausible image of the future, typically accompanied by a ‘future history’ that traces a pathway from the present to the future (often referred to as ‘explorative’ or ‘extrapolative’ scenarios) or vice versa (i.e. from the future to the present—often referred to as ‘normative’ scenarios). In any given exercise, several contrasting scenarios are normally developed that map out a ‘possibility space’. The number of scenarios developed varies from exercise to exercise, but three to five is typical. Given such a limited number of scenarios coupled with the objective of mapping out a possibility space, scenarios tend to differ markedly from each other, sometimes offering quite extreme (though still plausible) views of the future. Good scenarios often mix quantitative and qualitative elements.

• For more background on scenario approaches, see pages 4-5 of the Process Paper
• Examples of scenarios and the scenario process:
• Chapter 3 of ESF (2009). European Food Systems in a Changing World. ESF-COST Forward Look report.
• Scenario sets from the JISC (Joint Information Systems Committee)
• Environmental scenarios from the European Environment Agency
• Scenario process described by the Global Business Network