Foresight Analysis

The ICSU foresight analysis is led by ICSU’s Committee on Scientific Planning and Review (CSPR) and its foresight Task Team. It runs from October 2009 to February 2012 and will inform the development and implementation of ICSU’s next strategic plan 2012–2017.

This foresight explores the potential development of international science over the next 20 years in a changing economic, social, political, and environmental context. Its purpose is to test the role and mission of ICSU and guide long-term strategic choices aimed at building ICSU’s value in strengthening international science for the benefit of society. In addition, the foresight is aimed at helping ICSU Members develop their own strategic activities.

The foresight is scenario-based, and will provide ICSU with a 'long view' that complements the nearer-term view provided by other inputs to the strategic planning process.  A scenario is a tool for ordering perceptions about alternative future environments in which one’s decisions might be played out; it is a plausible image of the future, typically tracing a pathway from the present to the future or vice versa.  As for many other organizations conducting recent foresight analyses, the choice of the scenario approach by ICSU reflects an appreciation of the value of developing shared visions and assembling coalitions of actors to implement progressive change.

By focusing on scenarios, this foresight is not looking for scientific priority topics, but rather is mapping possible future contexts in which international science will operate. Exploring the drivers of changes in this future context, and the inherent uncertainties, helps to define the future role of ICSU in facilitating, supporting, and amplifying the work of the global scientific community and its organizations—with the ultimate aim of making the best use of collaborative international science for the benefit of society and the advancement of science itself.

Foresight Task Team

Roberta Balstad (US)
Lidia Brito (Mozambique)
Michael Keenan (UK)
John Marks (Chair, Netherlands)
Nebojsa Nakicenovic (Austria)
Kari Raivio (Finland)

More information

• Two-page summary of the process
• Process paper
• Frequently asked questions
  

For more information on this multi-step, consultative process email foresighticsu.org